Abstract Electricity consumption is a benchmark for economic development. As a measure, the economy in 2012 may be as low as 2008. On January 14, the data released by the National Energy Administration showed that the total electricity consumption of the whole society in 2012 was 4.9591 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.5...
Electricity consumption is a benchmark for economic development. As a measure, the economy in 2012 may be as low as 2008. On January 14, the data released by the National Energy Administration showed that the total electricity consumption of the whole society in 2012 was 4.9591 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. This is the second lowest total electricity consumption growth rate since 2002, only slightly higher than the minimum annual growth rate of 5.23% in the 2008 financial crisis.
Compared with 2011, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society fell by 6.2 percentage points in 2012. The primary industry was 101.3 billion kWh, the secondary industry was 366.69 billion kWh, the tertiary industry was 569 billion kWh, and the urban and rural residents lived 621.9 billion kWh.
Cold fire
In 2012, the newly added equipment capacity of power generation was 87 million kilowatts, including 19 million kilowatts of hydropower, 51 million kilowatts of thermal power, and 15.37 million kilowatts of wind power.
By the end of 2012, China's full-caliber power generation capacity was 1.144 billion kilowatts, including 249 million kilowatts of hydropower, 819 million kilowatts of thermal power, 12.57 million kilowatts of nuclear power, and 62.37 million kilowatts of wind power. Thermal power installed capacity accounted for 71.6% of the total installed capacity, still the main force of power supply.
However, compared with the newly-increased power generation equipment capacity in 2012, thermal power installed capacity and investment are still showing a downward trend. Among the newly added capacity in 2012, thermal power accounted for 58.6%. The new installed capacity of thermal power decreased by 13.4% year-on-year. It was the largest decline in nuclear power affected by the Fukushima nuclear crisis in Japan. The new installed capacity of nuclear power fell by 39.4% in 2012, while the new installed capacity of hydropower increased by 55.1% year-on-year.
Correspondingly, the completion of power infrastructure investment is also falling, with an investment of 377.2 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year, of which thermal power investment fell 10.5%.
Last year, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide decreased by 158 hours. However, the number of hours of utilization of hydropower and nuclear power has increased. Thermal power is the only power source that uses hours of reduction, which is 340 hours lower than the previous year.
Comprehensive thermal installations, power construction investment and power generation equipment utilization hours of three indicators, thermal power fell. A power generation company who did not want to be named said that thermal power is the main force of power supply for a period of time. It should mobilize the enthusiasm of thermal power investment to increase the power demand after the economic recovery.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Institute of Energy Economics at Xiamen University, said that because the proportion of thermal power is too large, the macro-control department hopes that the proportion of thermal power can go down, but the rate of decline needs to be treated with caution, and the cycle of power investment is generally 3 to 5 years. For a long time in the future, thermal power will be needed to ensure power supply, and thermal power investment will continue to keep up.
Lin Boqiang also said that the promotion of coal-fired coal and coal-electricity linkage will gradually increase the enthusiasm of thermal power investment, and the proportion of new energy power is too small to play a major role.
Economic bottoming
Electricity consumption is seen as the vane of economic development, and even some experts believe that electricity consumption data is more reliable than GDP data.
According to the data analysis of the power industry published by the National Energy Administration, in the total social power consumption in 2012, the growth rate of the tertiary industry and residents' electricity consumption exceeded 10%, and the electricity consumption of the primary industry was the same as that of 2011. Electricity consumption increased by 3.9%.
The secondary industry accounts for 72.7% of the total social electricity consumption, and heavy industry accounts for 60%. The proportion of industrial electricity is still maintained at a relatively high level. In comparison, the total electricity consumption of residential electricity and tertiary industry accounts for only about 24%. The proportion of electricity used by the three major industries has not changed much.
Lin Boqiang told reporters that the industry, especially heavy industry, uses a large amount of electricity, and it has a large effect on the growth rate of electricity consumption. The growth rate of electricity consumption basically reflects the economic situation.
The ratio of GDP to electricity consumption is called electricity efficiency, which is closely related to electricity consumption. In general, with the economic development, electricity efficiency continues to increase. Taking 2011 as an example, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the GDP in 2011 was 473.104 billion, with a growth rate of 9.3%. The total electricity consumption of the whole society was 469.28 billion kWh, the growth rate was 11.7%, and the electricity efficiency was about 10.
In terms of growth rate, the growth rate of social electricity consumption in 2011 was 2.4 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate. Lin Boqiang said that the long-term data from the 30 years of reform and opening up shows that GDP growth rate and power consumption growth rate maintain a one-to-one relationship. When the economy is good, electricity consumption growth rate is higher than GDP growth rate, when the economy is not good. Electricity consumption growth rate is lower than GDP growth rate.
5.5% of the total social electricity consumption growth rate is less than half of that in 2011, Lin Boqiang said: "This shows that the economy was very bad in 2012, as bad as the 2008 economic crisis."
In fact, Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in a forum on the 11th that China's GDP growth rate in 2012 will reach 7.7%. This is much higher than the 5.5% increase in electricity consumption in the whole society.
However, the upgrading of the industrial structure in 2012 made the growth of heavy industry, especially the high-energy-consuming industries, slow down, which also lowered the growth rate of electricity consumption. The energy-saving work promoted by the industrial sector has also achieved results. In the first three quarters of last year, the energy consumption per unit of GDP was reduced by 3.4%, and the annual energy consumption reduction may exceed 3.5%.
From the analysis of power data for the whole year of 2012, the growth rate of power consumption began to rise in the second half of the year. Lin Boqiang said that this shows that the economy is starting to pick up and will continue to improve in 2013.
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