Experts predict: total energy demand in 2015 will reach 4.5 billion tons of standard coal

International Energy Newsletter: On February 25th, China's first low-carbon development report "China's Low Carbon Development Report 2010" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") was released.

The reporter was informed that the report was prepared and published by the Climate Policy Center of Tsinghua University. The director of the center and professor Qi Tong of Tsinghua University School of Public Administration explained to the newspaper, “The contents of this report are not limited to 2010, but to the national low-carbon development policies and their effectiveness during the 11th Five-year Plan period. Assessment."

The research results of the "Report" indicate that during the "11th Five-Year Plan" period, the 20% energy saving target set in the "11th Five-Year Plan" has been basically achieved, effectively reversed the upward trend of energy intensity during the "10th Five-Year Plan" period, and successfully achieved A low-carbon transformation.

Although China's low-carbon transition has already started, the future of low-carbon road is not smooth.

“The energy intensity of the 'Eleventh Five-Year Plan' has been reduced, but the total energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are still rising rapidly,” said Jiankun, the director of the Low Carbon Energy Laboratory at Tsinghua University and the vice chairman of the National Climate Change Experts Committee at the “Report” conference. It points out, "So we must reasonably control the growth rate of GDP and try to control the total amount of energy consumption."

According to He Jiankun, in estimating the energy saving target of 16% during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, if GDP still maintains a momentum of rapid growth of over 10%, the total energy consumption demand will reach around 4.5 billion tons of standard coal by 2015, and CO2 emissions The volume will reach about 10 billion tons, which is equivalent to the sum of the United States and the European Union.

"Eleventh Five-Year" low-carbon response ""Eleventh Five-Year" is an important starting point for China's economic low-carbonization." WWF Global Response to Climate Change Yang Fuqiang said at the "Report" launch.

For what is "low carbonization", the "Report" gives a standard. That is, the core of low-carbon development lies in the low carbonization of the production and consumption process. The fossil energy consumed in the production of each unit of the product is reduced year by year.

“To measure this, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, China has curbed the basic trend of rising energy intensity that usually occurs during the process of heavy chemical industrialization, and has shifted the economic development from high carbonization to low carbonization.” Qi Hao pointed out.

According to public statistics, in 2003, the energy intensity index increased by 4.8% compared with 2002; in 2004, it increased by 5.5% compared with 2003; and the average annual growth rate of energy consumption from 2003 to 2005 was 14%. For three consecutive years of growth, the energy intensity in 2005 has rebounded to 1999 levels.

"In order to reverse this energy rebound, in the 'Eleventh Five-Year Plan', the state will incorporate a 20% energy saving target into the binding target," Yang Fuqiang explained. "According to the data released by the National Development and Reform Commission in February this year, 'Eleventh Five-Year' During the period, the national energy consumption per unit of GDP is expected to drop by 19.06%, and the planned target has been basically achieved."

"The 11th Five-Year Plan period has achieved remarkable results in energy conservation and emission reduction, with an energy saving of approximately 760 million tons of standard coal, a carbon dioxide intensity reduction of up to 20%, and a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of approximately 1.8 billion tons." He Jiankun at the "Report" conference Indicated.

The Low Carbon Contribution Atlas "Report" not only pointed out the major trends of the "Eleventh Five-Year" low-carbon transition, but also made a detailed assessment of the performance of low-carbon development of various basic sectors of the national economy during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period.

The assessment results show that the low carbonization momentum in the power industry and manufacturing industry is particularly evident. A series of inspiring phenomena and trends have begun to appear in the fields of architecture and transportation. The absolute amount of fossil energy consumed in agricultural production has declined, and the scale of forest carbon sinks has been expanding year by year.

The report pointed out that the development and utilization of low-carbon energy is becoming one of the most active growth points in the Chinese economy.

“The low-carbonization of the power industry is the most obvious, mainly reflected in the increase in the ratio of coal-fired power generation and non-fossil energy, and the carbon emission intensity has declined by 6.5% in three years, exceeding the decline in energy intensity.” Qi Yan introduced.

The results of the "Report" show that, in thermal power generation, the coal consumption for power generation and coal consumption for power supply have dropped by 21 grams and 25 grams respectively, which is equivalent to the decrease range from 2000 to 2005, that is, during the "10th Five-Year Plan" period; the carbon emission intensity of thermal power generation From the once-per-degree discharge of 935.8 grams of CO2 to 887.8 grams, it fell by 5.1% in three years. At the same time, non-fossil energy has developed rapidly. In 2008, the sum of the three categories of hydropower, wind power, and nuclear power generation increased by nearly half from 2005, which was faster than thermal power generation (36%).

Outside the power industry, the low carbon content of the manufacturing industry is also very noticeable. The "Report" pointed out that from 2005 to 2008, the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of industrial added value fell by 13.3%, an average annual decrease of 4.6%, exceeding the rate of decline of energy consumption per million yuan of GDP in the whole society (average 4% per year), and cumulative energy saving of 421 million yuan. Ton of standard coal, accounting for 58.7% of the national energy savings.

At the same time, the industrial added value of CO2 in the manufacturing industry dropped from 5.08 tons in 2005 to 4.30 tons in 2008, decreased by 14.8% in three years, and dropped by 5.4% annually. The country accounts for 65.7% of CO2 emission reductions.

In addition, the low carbonization of agriculture is also worthy of attention. This is the only sector that achieves an absolute reduction in energy consumption. In 2008, the energy consumption of the agriculture and forestry sector decreased by 2.2% compared with 2005, and was 5.4% lower than that in 2006. In addition to the absolute decline, the decline in energy intensity is even more pronounced, with a 15% drop from 2008 in 2008.

In this regard, Qi Wei specifically pointed out that due to data limitations, this report only collected complete data from 2005 to 2008 and some data from 2009, but did not involve data from 2010. “So our performance evaluation results cannot Fully reflects the 'Eleventh Five-Year', with slight flaws."

The Energy Saving Difficulty of GDP Impulse Although the trend of partial low-carbonization in various national economies is already obvious, the foundation of low-carbonization is still not solid.

"In the long run, how long can this low carbonization last? Is it sustainable? Will there be repetition? This is the key issue that must be resolved during the '12th Five-Year' and 'Thirteenth Five-Year' period," the report reminded.

He Jiankun stated at the “Report” conference that the situation of energy saving and carbon reduction is not optimistic. Although the energy intensity has decreased during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the rapid increase in total energy consumption and total carbon dioxide emissions has not been reversed. The growth rate is amazing.

For example, the total energy demand in 2010 is approximately 3.24 billion tons of standard coal, an increase of 37% over 2005, an annual growth rate of 6.5%, and an energy consumption elasticity of 0.59; the total annual increase in carbon dioxide emissions during the 11th Five-Year Plan period accounts for the world About half of the increase.

Therefore, “suppressing the rapid growth of total energy consumption and the increase in the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions is very important. Otherwise, according to the current speed of development, whether or not the low-carbon trend can be maintained will become a problem.” Yang Fuqiang pointed out that “maintaining low carbon One of the most important measures is to reasonably control the growth rate of GDP.Some studies have shown that GDP growth rate increases by one percentage point for every 8% of the national benchmark level, and GDP energy intensity reduction target should increase by 2-3%."

"The 7% GDP growth rate determined by the "Government Work Report" is even lower than the 8% that scholars have appealed for, which indicates that the country must make great efforts to adjust its structure." Yang Fuqiang said: "7% GDP growth is a realization of energy. Total consumption control is very helpful. The growth rate of GDP will fall, and the denominator of energy intensity will decrease."

The Director of Development Planning Department of the National Energy Administration Chang Bingbing has publicly stated that to achieve the goal of energy saving and carbon reduction by 2020, China's total primary energy consumption must be controlled within 4.2 billion tons by 2015.

However, the reporter found that from the 2011 development plans announced by the provinces, only Beijing (8%), Shanghai (8%), Hebei (9%), Zhejiang (9%), and Guangdong (9) have reached the target of less than 10%. %), most provinces have set their GDP growth rate at 12%-13%, which means that the trend of capacity expansion in heavy chemical industry is still very clear.

The reporter learned that from past experience, the GDP growth rate determined by the state in the five-year plan will often be lower than the actual growth rate of GDP. "Under the assumption that the local GDP impulse is difficult to curb, it is very difficult to achieve a target of controlling 4.2 billion tons of energy consumption," Yang Fuqiang emphasized to the newspaper.