In the first two months of this year, the national power industry operated smoothly. Affected by factors such as the slowdown in economic growth and the high base in the previous year, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society has dropped significantly. The growth rate of electricity consumption in industry, especially in manufacturing, has dropped significantly. The electricity consumption in building materials and steel smelting industry has decreased year on year. The completed investment continued to decrease significantly, the growth rate of thermal power installed capacity was low, and hydropower generation continued to decline negatively. Affected by drought factors, the power supply from the southwestern power grid of the South China Power Grid has been greatly reduced; the overall balance of power supply and demand across the country, there is a certain gap in the southern power grid area. Coal prices of thermal power companies continued to rise year-on-year, and the impact of loan interest rate hikes on enterprises was more prominent. The operation of thermal power industry is still difficult. The China Electricity Council is expected to maintain an overall balance between power supply and demand in the summer before the peak of the peak, with a maximum power gap of 10 million to 20 million kilowatts. A. The growth rate of electricity consumption in industrial manufacturing industry decreased significantly from January to February. The national electricity consumption of the whole society was 749.7 billion kWh, an increase of 6.7% over the same period of the previous year. The growth rate was 5.7 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year; After that, the average daily electricity consumption was 12.5 billion kWh, an increase of 4.9% over the same period of the previous year and a decrease of 6.1 percentage points from December of last year. The main reasons for the slowdown in electricity consumption growth are as follows: First, the slowdown in power demand caused by the steady economic slowdown since the second half of 2011 is reflected in the slow growth of electricity consumption in industries, especially in high-energy-consuming industries. After the energy conservation and emission reduction targets were completed, some provinces showed a certain rebound in electricity consumption in the first quarter of 2011, resulting in a high base. It is expected that this factor will gradually weaken. From January to February, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry increased by 4.8% year-on-year, accounting for 70.9% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society. The contribution rate to the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society was 51.6%, a decrease of 15.8 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. . In terms of regions, from January to February, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole region of the Northwest Power Grid was 11.3%, which was significantly slower than that of the previous year. The growth rate in Gansu and Shaanxi was low, but the regional growth rate was still significantly higher than that in the whole country and other regions. The growth rate of Central China Power Grid was 7.7%, of which Henan increased by 13.3%, Sichuan and Jiangxi increased by only 1.0% and 3.4% respectively; North China Power Grid's regional growth rate was 7.5%, of which Shanxi increased by 14.3%, Shandong and Tianjin increased by 4.8% respectively; And 4.9%; East China Power Grid regional growth rate was 5.5%, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian increased by only 1.6%, 3.0% and 3.0% respectively; Southern Power Grid region increased by 4.5%, of which Guizhou and Hainan increased by more than 12%, Guangxi and Yunnan The year-on-year decline was 2.1% and 1.3% respectively; the Northeast Power Grid region grew by 3.9%, continuing the low-speed growth of the previous year, with Liaoning only growing by 1.0%. From January to February, the national industrial electricity consumption was 522.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, which was lower than the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society, accounting for 69.7% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society. The contribution rate is 51.4%. Among them, light industry electricity consumption was 82.8 billion kWh, down 3.9% year-on-year, accounting for 11.1% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society; heavy industry electricity consumption was 439.8 billion kWh, up 6.6% year-on-year, accounting for the proportion of electricity consumption in the whole society. It is 58.7%. In the light industry, the electricity consumption of the textile industry decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, and the clothing, shoes, hats, leather down and its products industry decreased by 8.8% year-on-year. To a certain extent, the decline in international market demand has a significant impact on the domestic industry with high external dependence. . The increase in heavy industry electricity consumption is mainly due to the increase in the production and transportation of electricity in the power industry. From January to February, the national manufacturing power consumption was 383.7 billion kWh, down 0.5% year-on-year. The average daily manufacturing electricity consumption was 6.42 billion kWh, down 1.8% year-on-year. In the industries with large electricity consumption in the manufacturing industry, except for the year-on-year decline in electricity consumption in the textile industry, the electricity consumption of the general and special equipment manufacturing industry decreased by 5% year-on-year; the rubber and plastic products industry decreased by 4.7%; transportation, electrical, The electronics manufacturing industry fell by 0.1%; the building materials and ferrous metal smelting industries in the four key industries continued their downward trend in the fourth quarter of last year, down 7.3% and 6.2% respectively, and the electricity consumption in the chemical and non-ferrous metal smelting industries was year-on-year. The growth rate was 7.7% and 10.6%. The total electricity consumption of the four key industries increased by 0.8% year-on-year, accounting for 30.8% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society, which was 1.8 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year. After deducting the leap year factor, it actually experienced negative growth. The growth rate dropped sharply from the full-year growth rate of 2011 (12.8%), resulting in a slow increase in industrial electricity consumption and total social electricity consumption. B. Investing in thermal power investment significantly reduced the growth rate of installed capacity is still low in January and February. The national infrastructure new power generation capacity (formally put into operation) was 3.85 million kilowatts, a decrease of 8.46 million kilowatts over the same period of the previous year, mainly due to the thermal power production of 2.73 million kilowatts. , a decrease of 7.18 million kilowatts over the same period of the previous year. As of the end of February, the installed capacity of power plants with a capacity of 6,000 kW and above was 1.025 billion kilowatts, an increase of 9.2% over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the installed capacity of hydropower of 6000 kW and above was 197 million kilowatts, an increase of 7.8% over the same period of the previous year; the installed capacity of thermal power was 765 million kilowatts, an increase of 7.5% over the same period of the previous year; the installed capacity of nuclear power was 12.57 million kilowatts, an increase of 16.2% over the same period of the previous year; The installed capacity of grid-connected wind power was 47.85 million kilowatts, an increase of 44.7% over the same period of the previous year. The installed capacity of power generation continued to shift to the west. The installed capacity of power generation in the western region increased by 13.4% year-on-year, the central region increased by 9.0% year-on-year, and the northeast and east increased by 7.3% and 6.4% respectively. From January to February, the nationwide power project started with a total scale of 7.56 million kilowatts, a decrease of 1.22 million kilowatts from the same period of the previous year. As of the end of February, the national power project under construction was about 182 million kilowatts, which was basically the same as the same period of the previous year. Among them, the scale of thermal power construction is about 65 million kilowatts, a decrease of 5 million kilowatts compared with the same period of last year. With the gradual recovery of industrial production, the pressure on thermal power production will increase significantly. From January to February, the national electric power project construction completed an investment of 68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%. Among them, the power and power grid construction completed investment of 45.1 billion yuan and 22.9 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 22.9% and 7.0% over the same period of last year. In the completion of investment in power supply, thermal power completed investment of 7.9 billion yuan, down 35.0% year-on-year, continuing the downward trend of the previous year. The proportion of thermal power completed investment in power supply completed investment fell to 17.6%, down 15.7 percentage points from the same period of last year; hydropower and nuclear power Wind power completed investment of 16.3 billion yuan, 10.5 billion yuan and 9.6 billion yuan respectively, up 92.1%, 13.5% and 52.3% year-on-year respectively. The investment in clean energy such as hydropower, nuclear power and wind power accounted for 82.4% of the investment in power supply, compared with the previous year. Significantly rising. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative power generation in the country from January to February was 718.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. In February, the power generation capacity of power plants above designated size was 370.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. The reason for the higher growth was the overlapping effect of the Spring Festival and the New Year. From January to February, the cumulative power generation of hydropower in power plants above designated size was 68.7 billion kwh, down 0.3% year-on-year, mainly due to the partial flooding in the southern region. Among the seven major hydropower provinces with installed capacity exceeding 10 million kilowatts, Qinghai Province had the highest growth rate of 15.7%, Sichuan increased by 9.8%, Hubei increased by 1.3%, Guangxi decreased by 54.3%, Guizhou decreased by 38.3%, and Hunan decreased by 5.3%. Decreased by 0.7%. From January to February, the thermal power generation capacity of power plants above designated size was 608.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. Among the provinces with more than 20 million kilowatts of thermal power installed, Guangdong has the highest growth rate of 13.1%, Jiangsu, Henan and Shanxi have increased by nearly 10%, and Shaanxi has increased by 9%. Fujian has the largest decline, reaching 7.7%, mainly because its hydropower generation has increased year-on-year. The range is very high, reaching 88%, and the space for thermal power generation is correspondingly reduced. In addition, it is affected by the base of hydropower reduction and thermal power generation in the same period last year. From January to February, affected by the hikes of new production units, nuclear power generation increased by 16.9% year-on-year, and nuclear power will gradually enter a period of rapid growth; wind power generation increased by 21.3%. From January to February, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment in the country was 720 hours, a decrease of 14 hours from the same period of the previous year. In terms of types, from January to February, the average utilization time of hydropower equipment in the country was 326 hours, a decrease of 49 hours compared with the same period of the previous year. Among the seven provinces with hydropower installed capacity exceeding 10 million kilowatts, only Qinghai increased by 12 hours compared with the same period of last year. The year-on-year decrease, especially in Guangxi and Guizhou, the decline was 231 hours and 170 hours respectively; the average utilization time of thermal power equipment in the country was 837 hours, which was only one hour higher than the same period of the previous year, of which the provinces increased by more than 50 hours. It is Guizhou (95 hours), Hunan (73 hours), and Henan (71 hours); Qinghai and Ningxia are ranked first in the province's thermal power equipment utilization hours in 1129 hours and 1121 hours. C. Problem The overall supply of thermal coal is still stable. The operation of thermal power enterprises is still difficult. Under the strong coordination of the National Development and Reform Commission and other ministries and commissions, from January to February, the coal supply of coal-fired power plants was generally stable, inventory remained at a high level, and the market price of coal was generally falling. It has a greater effect on promoting the balance of power supply and demand. Since February, with the gradual recovery of power consumption demand, the coal consumption of power plants has increased significantly, while the coal supply of power plants is significantly less than the coal consumption of power plants. The coal inventory of power plants has decreased. By the end of February, the national key power plants have been coal-fired. The inventory was 73.14 million tons, a decrease of 8.51 million tons from the end of 2011. At the end of February, the price of thermal coal has stabilized and stabilized. With the gradual recovery of industrial production, the coal consumption of power plants will continue to rise. It is estimated that the price of thermal coal will rise in the next few months. In December 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission raised the on-grid tariff and its corresponding sales price, which alleviated the continued loss of thermal power enterprises. However, on the one hand, interest rate hikes have caused further increase in financial expenses. On the other hand, although the market price of coal has declined, it is still slightly higher than the same period of the previous year. In addition, the price of key contracted coal in 2012 increased by 5%, resulting in five major power generation. The average unit price (including tax) of the Group's standard coal price still rose by RMB 42/ton over the same period of the previous year. The loss situation of the thermal power industry has not been reversed, and the business prospects are still not optimistic. From January to February, affected by favorable factors such as slower demand growth and better coal-fired protection, plus the overall balance of power supply and demand across the country during the Spring Festival, power grids in the southern power grid were limited. Due to the slowdown in economic growth in the southern power grid region, the maximum load of the regional power grid is about 3 million kilowatts lower than expected. However, the four provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou and Yunnan in the region are mainly affected by factors such as the decline in output due to the water and electricity coming from the water. In the first half of the month and in the middle and late February, power cuts were imposed, and the maximum power gap was around 6 million kilowatts. D. It is predicted that the electricity consumption in the first quarter will increase by 7%~8%. The complicated factors will affect the power operation in the first half of the year from January to February. All macroeconomic indicators have dropped significantly. The growth rate of industrial added value is the lowest level since August 2009. In particular, the growth rate of heavy industry fell to 10.9%, reflecting the slowdown in economic growth and the country's active regulation and control has had a significant impact on the development of heavy industry, and the possibility of a rapid recovery in the next quarter is less likely. Moreover, the current global economic recovery has tended to stagnate, economic downside risks remain, external demand has shrunk, international trade protectionism has intensified, and the development of export-oriented industries in the east is facing severe challenges. At the same time, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has risen for three consecutive months, indicating to a certain extent that the manufacturing industry continues to maintain overall stable growth; from the BDI of the Baltic Dry Index, which reflects international shipping conditions, since February Since then, it has also been on an upward trend, reflecting to some extent that the current international trade situation has picked up. In particular, the country will place steady growth in the prominent position of the work throughout the year. Under the circumstance of emphasizing policy continuity, it will adjust and fine-tune the timing according to the changes in the situation, and further improve the pertinence, flexibility and forward-looking of the policy. Judging that the macro economy will maintain steady growth in the first half of the year. According to CEC analysis, March to April will be the key month for judging the trend of monthly electricity consumption in the coming period. It is necessary to closely observe the growth of industrial electricity consumption and the development of commercial electricity. According to the trend of electricity consumption in the previous period, it is estimated that the total electricity consumption in the whole society will be 420 billion to 430 billion kWh in March. In the first quarter, the national total electricity consumption will be 1.17 trillion to 1.18 trillion kWh, an increase of 7% to 8%. Considering that the leap year factor affects the whole society's electricity consumption by about 1 percentage point in the first quarter, after deducting this factor, the average daily social power consumption increased by 6% to 7% in the first quarter; it is estimated that the national total electricity consumption in the first half of the year will be 24,400. It is about 2.47 trillion kWh, up 8.5%~9.7% year-on-year, and it is recommended to grow by 9%. With the increase of temperature and the steady recovery of industrial production, the electricity consumption and electricity load of the whole society will increase steadily. The impact of partial hydropower shortage will gradually appear in some areas, and then consider the centralized maintenance of the unit before the summer and the large-scale denitration of the thermal power unit. The adjustable capacity is reduced. It is expected that the national power supply and demand will remain at an overall balance in the summer before the peak. The maximum power gap is 10 million to 20 million kilowatts, mainly concentrated in the southern power grid, East China Power Grid and some provinces and regions of Central China Power Grid.
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