Abstract On June 5, the reporter learned from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center that the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 135 basis points to 6.7935, which was the highest in more than half a year. Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Caixin Think Tank Monita Research, said that the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has risen...
On June 5, the reporter learned from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center that the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 135 basis points to 6.7935, which was the highest in more than half a year. Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Caixin Think Tank Monita Research, said that the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose first. This was due to the fact that the foreign exchange trading center confirmed the introduction of the “counter-cyclic factor†last weekend, trying to weaken the drag on the closing price. As a result, the market expects a significant shift. In addition, the offshore market led the gains and once again staged a “forced out†market.
"In the short term, the onshore RMB exchange rate may still rise further in the offshore market, but the introduction of the 'counter-cyclic factor' is difficult to fundamentally change the lack of RMB selling in the market. After the end of this round of inflation, the RMB exchange rate or Will return to the track of following the fluctuation of the dollar, but this year the overall depreciation pressure of the RMB has been greatly reduced." Zhong Zhengsheng said.
An analyst at Huatai Securities said that the change in the central parity pricing mechanism of the RMB exchange rate has strengthened the central bank's ability to regulate the RMB exchange rate. The mid-price reflects the fundamentals of China's economy more effectively and helps to stabilize exchange rate expectations. The Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to be basically full in June. Therefore, the actual impact of the rate hike will not be too large, but it is necessary to pay attention to the expected guidance of the September rate hike. The US dollar still has room for growth in the second half of the year. The probability is higher.
Li Huiyong, chief macro analyst of Shen Wan Hongyuan, said in an interview that the appreciation of the renminbi and the dollar index fell. According to the SDR currency basket exchange rate index and CFETS index estimated by the RMB against the middle price of a basket of currencies, as of June 2, the two were 94.14 and 93.61 respectively. The SDR index and the CFETS index increased by 0.93% and 1.12%, respectively, from the previous week.
Data show that as of June 3, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.8162, up 0.65% from the previous week; the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.8070, up 0.91% from the previous week; offshore closed at 6.7758, The previous week appreciated 0.68%. The average daily turnover of CNY is 25.9 billion US dollars, up by 300 million US dollars from the previous week. The US dollar index fell 0.8% last week to 96.66.
Li Huiyong said that in the near term, offshore and onshore RMB have appreciated sharply. The main reason for this round of RMB appreciation is that the central bank chooses to adjust its pricing at the time of its selection. The current stage of the target is basically completed. Considering that China's economy is generally stable, the US dollar is generally weak, and the "counter-cyclic factor" is added, the RMB exchange rate this year will be stronger than our previous expectations.
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