The potash market needs to wait for good pull

From October 8th to December 12th, the domestic potash fertilizer market continued to be in a sluggish state, and poor transactions made it difficult to stabilize prices. In Shandong, 60% of Russia's red potassium was 2650-2700 yuan per ton, border trade was 60% of red potassium and 62% of white potassium. Less than 2600 yuan / ton, the port is not very satisfactory, red potassium low-end offer below 2650 yuan / ton. The gradual decline in prices did not drive the transaction, but instead aggravated the downstream risk aversion, and replenishment purchases were more cautious. According to analysis, the development of the potash market needs to wait for a positive pull.

Since the second half of 2012, the potash fertilizer market has been overshadowed by negative factors, lacking favorable factors to support, and the situation of oversupply has not been broken. In September, the ex-factory prices of the two leading companies, Salt Lake and Luoshao, dropped drastically and the market became more fragile and sensitive. As traders speculated about the contract price in the second half of the year, they began to use various price-reduction promotions to try to sell their high prices. Selling goods to reduce losses. At the potash fertilizer analysis conference held in Qingdao in September, the topics of several companies, associations, and traders have been centered on supply and demand balance and price stabilization. People in the industry believe that the major negative factors in the market are basically released. If shipping and land transportation are no longer new arrivals in the second half of the year, the domestic potash fertilizer market is still expected to stabilise in the turmoil. Last week, there was a new single deal in the border trade that had been quiet for half a month, and the price dropped by $30 to $405 on the basis of the original. This price has made the industry more determined that the preliminary contract price of potash will be less than 400 US dollars in the second half of the year. At present, the preparation of wheat in autumn has basically ended. The downstream large-scale compound fertilizer companies basically stop production. The operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises has also continued to decline. The overall operating rate is expected to be less than 40%, which makes the potash market more difficult to see signs of improvement. The poor transaction is not only reflected in the potash market. Looking at the entire fertilizer market, the current weak pattern will continue for some time. In this environment, traders and distributors have not shown too much interest in the upcoming winter reserve. It is expected that this situation will not change much by the end of October. Some dealers expressed that perhaps after the Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Association in early November, depending on corporate dynamics at the meeting, they will take another action.

Overall, the overall market for the domestic potash fertilizer market has been sluggish this year, and the situation in the second half of the year was even worse in the first half. This kind of corporate price cuts, traders throwing goods, dealers preparing fertilizer is not a positive mood is expected to be a 12-year industry's overall portrayal. At present, except for large traders who still have more stocks, the stocks in circulation are less. In addition, traders’ continuous dumping of goods has repeatedly set prices, making it difficult to determine the bottom line of the market. However, the current price is close to the bottom line. After sales promotions for salt lakes and Luoshao are completed, this year's sales tasks are basically completed, and the market outlook will gradually stabilize prices. The room for the potash fertilizer market to continue to decline in the latter part of the market is limited, but under the influence of the hard factors that exceed the demand, prices will hardly rebound. It is expected that the potash market will continue to consolidate in the downturn for a period of time.