At present, during the sensitive period of negotiations, the tricks from the “reluctance to sell†in the mine have once again brought the steel industry to an embarrassing situation.
The reporter learned from the port on the 10th that the current business is treated with a strong bullish attitude, most of them are reluctant to ship, and high-grade resources are very tight. Later iron ore prices continue to face upward pressure. It is understood that in the current imported iron ore spot market, Tianjin Port (9.85, 0.00, 0.00%) 63.5% Indian fine ore price is 1250 yuan / wet tons, 62% PB fine ore price is 1190 yuan / wet tons, Rizhao Port (4.47, 0.00, 0.00%) 62% Indian powder mine 1180 yuan / wet tons, 61% India powder mine 1130 yuan / wet tons, 62% Australian lump ore price 1340 yuan / wet tons.
"As the first demand side of iron ore, with the limited production of domestic steel mills, the demand for iron ore is also falling. It is a kind of containment for the three major mines, but this is not the case." The person in charge of the raw material procurement department said this. This statement is not empty. According to data released by the China Iron and Steel Association on Monday, the total output of China's major steel companies in October was 1.586 million tons, a decrease of 2% compared with the previous month. However, the reduction in China's steel production and the reduction in iron ore demand did not result in a decline in shipments from the three major mines. According to foreign media reports, according to data released by the Port Authority of Australia (which is responsible for managing the shipment of BHP Billiton to ports exporting iron ore overseas), the port's iron ore shipments in October were 16.99 million tons, and 9 The monthly increase of 15.77 million tons was 8.5%.
At the same time, however, the ore flow has changed. From September to October, shipments from Australia’s three major iron ore producers to China fell 40% year-on-year to 6.474 million tons, while shipments to Japan surged during the same period. It was 7.121 million tons, which nearly tripled year-on-year.
All kinds of signs indicate that the ore of the three major mines is not an empty talk. An analyst who did not want to be named expressed concern that the price of ore will not fall due to the decline in our demand, which will have a huge impact on the cost of steel mills. According to this trend, plus the depreciation pressure of the US dollar, iron ore prices next year. It is inevitable that the rise will be made.
Xu Xiangchun, director of information for my steel network, said that in fact, whether it is inside or outside the negotiations, reducing or increasing supply has always been the usual trick of the three major mines. Because of the monopoly position, the three major mines will inevitably rise rapidly by reducing supply. The price of ore will also affect market psychology. Whether the current ore increase is related to the negotiation momentum cannot be determined, but objectively speaking, it will inevitably help the seller to consolidate its strong position and obtain higher profits. To be sure, it is not easy to return to the long track in the quarterly pricing of one year.
For the forecast of iron ore pricing model this year, Dai Guoqing, a veteran of the steel industry, believes that the trend of China's spot market price as the basic reference price will not change. In addition, the large price difference between the long-term price and the spot price is difficult to sustain. It is very likely that the spot price will fluctuate around the long exchange rate.
Dai Guoqing said that the key to whether China's steel demand will increase significantly next year is whether the long-term price may change back to annual pricing or half-year pricing. If the ore producers can reach a consensus with Chinese steel producers about China's steel demand next year, it is possible to return to annual pricing. However, if China's steel demand is weak next year, it can only grow at a low rate, and steel prices are generally stable throughout the year. Even if quarterly pricing is implemented, there is not much difference from annual pricing. Therefore, it is also possible to continue to implement quarterly pricing.
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