Fourth quarter stable operation of petrochemical industry

In the third quarter of this year, China's petrochemical industry showed a steady trend, and the economic performance was on a better-than-normal basis. It is expected that the downward trend in the economic performance of the petrochemical industry in the fourth quarter is expected to be contained, and major economic data may stabilize.

Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of major economies in the world has continued to slow down, and the domestic macroeconomic situation is facing a more severe situation. Affected by this, China's petrochemical industry as a whole showed a downward trend. After China’s relevant departments have successively introduced a series of measures to stabilize growth, the petrochemical industry has basically reversed the trend of continued decline in growth rate, and signs of stabilization and recovery have gradually emerged in September. Data show that from January to September, the petrochemical industry realized total industrial output value of 7901.4 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3% over the same period of last year. Among them, the completed output value of 951.0 billion yuan in September, an increase of 12.3%.

In recent months, under the backdrop of insufficient overall prosperity of the petrochemical industry, investment and new projects started to grow faster and brighter. Statistics show that the actual investment in fixed assets of the petrochemical industry from January to June, January to July, January to August, and January to September were 734.1 billion yuan, 903.1 billion yuan, 1059.6 billion yuan, and 107.76 billion yuan respectively. , year-on-year increase of 30.7%, 30.9%, 28.9%, 32.9%. From January to September, there were 14441 construction projects in the petrochemical industry, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year. Among them, 9479 new projects were started, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year. In terms of specific investment, the growth rate of high-end manufacturing industry was relatively large. Among them, investment in synthetic materials increased by 59.5% year-on-year, and special equipment increased by 61.1% year-on-year, indicating that the petrochemical industry has stepped up structural adjustment efforts in the event of a decline in overall efficiency. According to industry forecasts, the annual growth rate of fixed asset investment in the petrochemical industry is above 28%.

In terms of foreign trade, from January to September, the total foreign trade of the petrochemical industry was US$295.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%. Among them, the import of 199.4 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%; exports of 126.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%; trade deficit of 42.9 billion US dollars, basically the same as last year. Since May, the petrochemical industry has reversed the downward trend in imports and exports since the fourth quarter of last year, gradually stabilized and stabilized, and the monthly import and export volume has recovered to the level of the same period last year. In September, both the petrochemical industry's import and export growth rebounded. The growth rate of imports rebounded to 2.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate of exports rebounded to 4.1% year-on-year.

With the gradual effect of the national macro-control policies, the economic operation of the petrochemical industry will enter a stable and slightly upward phase in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the output value of the industry in the fourth quarter will be about 3.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year, and an increase of 10% from the previous quarter. Among them, the output value in October was about 1.06 trillion yuan, a flat or slightly lower month-on-month. The estimated annual production value is about 12.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.5%; the total profit is about 735 billion yuan, a decrease of about 11%; the main business income is about 12.0 trillion yuan, an increase of about 10%; US$655 billion, an increase of about 8%; investment is about 1.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 30%. The annual crude oil production was approximately 205 million tons, an increase of 1.0%; natural gas production was approximately 110 billion cubic meters, an increase of approximately 7%; and the total output of major chemicals increased by 8.6% to approximately 450 million tons.