Holidays near steel prices are hard to change

First, the price trend According to the business community monitoring price monitoring, as of September 13, 16mm three rebar market price 3456.15 yuan / ton (including tax), from early 3477.69 yuan / ton (tax included) fell nearly 20 yuan / Ton (including tax), a decrease of -0.62%.

Second, the impact of factors analysis Since the beginning of last week, small and medium-sized steel mills have gradually reduced the ex-factory price of building materials, this week the construction materials market leading sand steel introduced in mid-September guide prices, compared with the previous ten-day flat plate offer fell 30 yuan / ton, ending since July The mid-ten-day uptrend has increased the bearish sentiment of steel mills.

On the upstream side, the major imports of upstream raw iron ore, Australian PB powder and Brazilian coarse meal, fell slightly by -0.42% and -0.58% respectively, which was a drag on the spot price of steel. Although coke rises slightly, coke costs account for less steel cost, so coke prices do not support steel prices.

On the downstream side, from the perspective of real estate data, real estate investment, development, and sales have all declined, which has adversely affected the building materials market. According to statistics, the sales area of ​​commercial housing in the country from January to August increased by 23.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 2.4 percentage points from January to July. Real estate companies' land acquisition and development enthusiasm were all restrained. From January to August, the investment in real estate development in the country increased by 19.3% year-on-year, with the growth rate falling by 1.2% from January to July. The area of ​​land acquisition by real estate development companies decreased by 9.1% from the same period of last year, which was a 7.7 percentage point drop from January to July. . In addition, the news that banks have suspended mortgages has been flooded, and this phenomenon has begun to spread to second- and third-tier cities. Coupled with the relentless rise in domestic housing prices, it has caused a certain blow to housing sales.

According to the latest data from China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily crude steel production in the country in late August 2013 was estimated to be 2,119,200 tons, which was a month-on-month increase of 0.05%. As of the end of August 2013, the steel stocks of key steel enterprises in the country totaled 12.4505 million tons, a decrease of 376,400 tons from the end of August, and a decrease of 2.93% from the previous quarter.

As of September 6, the country's main steel stocks totaled 14.5142 million tons, of which rebar stocks stood at 5.955 million tons, and the social inventory of building materials remained at a downward trend.

President Obama may nominate Summers as the Fed's errand, causing concern that the U.S. monetary policy will remain unchanged. The collapse of gold will continue to drag down global commodities.

Third, the market outlook predicts that the current upstream raw materials market is relatively weak, but the downstream real estate market is tight and the construction is lower than expected. The demand for the construction steel rebar market has been significantly reduced compared with July. Business analyst Lu Gang believes that although steel crude steel output is still high, with an average daily output of more than 2.1 million tons, steel mill stocks and social inventories have decreased, and near mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, short-term restocking of the market may have ended prematurely. The construction of the construction site will be further reduced, superimposed the tightening of downstream real estate loans, and the formation of bearish steel prices. The short-term steel prices are expected to remain weak.